Las Vegas 2020 Presidential Odds
- One of the big requests from our readers this week was covering the best bets for Electoral College results in the 2020 presidential election. So, I decided to put this little piece together detailing the Electoral College odds, my favorite bets, the worst bets, and a few predictions that should help you choose wise wagers.
- A Las Vegas oddsmaker has President Donald Trump favored to win the 2020 presidential election. Click to see the odds for a variety of candidates.
- Las Vegas Oddsmaker Changes Line On 2020 Presidential Election
- Daily Las Vegas Presidential 2020 Odds
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- What Are The Vegas Odds On The 2020 Presidential Election
What are the Vegas odds of Trump winning the 2020 Election? Well, they’re pretty much the same as they were four years ago when he squared off with Hilary Clinton. Once again, the oddsmakers think of him as the underdog. But in 2016, America didn’t get its first female President. Instead, the underdog won and is now hoping to get another term in the office.
2020 US Presidential Election Archives Las Vegas Odds. 2024 US Presidential; Esports; Live Odds. WNBA Basketball Odds; CFL Football Odds; Free. Odds on the 2020 US Presidential Election Winning Party according to BetOnline Sportsbook. February 21, 2019. Politics Party to Win the 2020 Presidential Election Democratic Party -150 Republican Party +120. Odds on the 2020 US Presidential Election Winning Party according to BetOnline Sportsbook. December 23, 2018. Even though Biden won the 2020 U.S. Presidential election with Kamala Harris as his running mate, it’s Harris who is the favorite to be the POTUS in 2024. Harris has +450 odds (18.2 percent implied probability) to win the 2024 U.S. Election, according to the latest presidential election odds, with Biden just behind her at +550 to win a second.
Can he do it again? Betting odds definitely look tempting, with some sportsbooks offering as much as +175. Unfortunately, American bettors cannot take advantage of the odds. Why? Because betting on the Presidential Election is not legal in the United States. Vegas Odds of Trump Winning do not exist anywhere in America, but they can be found at offshore betting sites.
Actually, industry experts suggest that the US Presidential Election is the most popular betting event in offshore sportsbooks. With only a couple of weeks remaining before the Trump vs Biden Election clash, the operators are handling 10 times the amount of wagers they did in February when the Super Bowl took place.
Trump vs Biden – Odds of Winning the 2020 Election
The Vegas odds of Trump winning in November are not available anywhere on US soil. However, not only are they available offshore, but it seems that every offshore sportsbook has this market in its offer. BetOnline.ag, Bovada, BetUS – all of them offer odds for Trump vs Biden.
So, who’s the favorite? Joe Biden is, as you can see for yourself from the table below:
The odds are clearly in Biden’s favor, but the same was the case four years ago. Actually, Trump’s odds of winning were even worse back then. Still, despite being a +550 underdog at one point in 2016, Trump was the one who got to move into the White House.
What Were the Vegas Odds of Trump Winning in 2016?
In the days before the Election day of 2016, Trump’s odds of winning were as much as +190 at some sportsbooks. If this seems shocking, wait until you hear about what were the Vegas Odds of Trump winning on the Election night – at around 8 PM on that faithful day, Trump’s odds were +550.
Everyone seemed to think we’re going to see another member of the Clinton Family ruling the United States. Some sportsbooks like Paddy Power even decided to pay out Clinton Bettors in advance, thinking there was no way Trump was going to win. The poor judgment cost them almost a million dollars.
Historia est Magistra Vitae – As ancient Romans used to say, history is life’s teacher. Events from the past teach us about what might happen in the future. If Trump managed to upset the odds in 2016, perhaps he could be able to do the same in 2020?
Well, he might, but keep in mind that the year 2016 was a very strange year from the betting perspective. Apart from Trump winning the election, bettors witnessed many other upsets, including:
- Leicester City winning the English Premier League at +500,000
- The UK voting “Leave” in the Brexit referendum at +600
- Chicago Cubs winning the World Series at +1,000
- Denver Broncos beating Carolina Panthers in Super Bowl 50 at +150
- Conor McGregor suffering his first UFC defeat to Nate Diaz at +380
In 2020, bettors haven’t witnessed too many upsets, which begs the question of whether it’s overdue?
Current Odds Favoring Biden
Odds change all the time – it’s how they work. If bettors are putting a lot of money on one outcome, the sportsbooks need to adjust the odds so if that outcome wins, they aren’t going to have to pay out too much money.
For instance, if a lot of money is being wagered on Joe Biden at -190, sportsbooks will react by moving the odds to -210. This way, if Biden actually wins, they aren’t going to lose as much money as they would if they left the odds at -190. Simultaneously, they will also change the odds on Trump, presenting the Republican candidate as a more attractive prospect for bettors.
Exactly that is what’s been happening over the last couple of weeks. Presidential Election odds have been changing constantly, making Biden an even stronger favorite. The obvious explanation for this is that bettors have started putting more money on Biden than before.
However, it wasn’t always like that. Back in February, the odds of Trump winning his second presidency were as short as -180. At the time, Joe Biden’s odds were +2,000. So, what happened since? COVID-19 happened.
Las Vegas Oddsmaker Changes Line On 2020 Presidential Election
What Were Trump’s Odds of Winning Before the Pandemic Started?
Betting odds depend strictly on the bettors’ behavior. Their behavior, however, depends on a variety of factions. Some bettors didn’t like the way he handled himself in the Presidential Debate, some didn’t like his recent tweets. Then, there are also those bettors who may still love the President but want to ensure they don’t end up double-losers if the Democrat wins.
Still, judging by how the odds have been moving this year, it seems that Trump’s handling of the COVID-19 situation is the key factor. For instance, we saw a major odds move the day when it was announced he tested positive for coronavirus. His odds did improve slightly when he got out of the hospital, but are still nowhere near the pre-pandemic number.
Throughout February, most offshore sportsbooks were giving -180 on Trump, but then in March the odds suddenly changed. On March 16, the Vegas odds of Trump winning went to +105. What happened? President issued new COVID-19 guidelines, practically putting the United States under a lockdown.
Another major odds change happened in summer when it became clear Joe Biden is going to be the candidate of the Democratic Party. That’s when his odds moved to -110 never to go back. In fact, they have been changing in his favor constantly since then.
One of the big requests from our readers this week was covering the best bets for Electoral College results in the 2020 presidential election.
So, I decided to put this little piece together detailing the Electoral College odds, my favorite bets, the worst bets, and a few predictions that should help you choose wise wagers.
I’ve taken the odds from the best political betting sites. You can find several top sites offering some really interesting odds right now, and I’ll get into why a little later.
Before you place your bets, make sure to give this post a good read. There is some valuable info in here that I think you’ll enjoy, and it could ultimately make the difference between winning money and losing it on the election.
So, without further ado, let’s get to it!
State | Republican Odds | Democratic Odds |
Alabama (AL) | -3300 | +950 |
Alaska (AK) | -1400 | +650 |
Arizona (AZ) | +110 | -145 |
Arkansas (AR) | -4000 | +1000 |
California (CA) | +1000 | -4000 |
Colorado (CO) | +1000 | -4000 |
Connecticut (CT) | +1000 | -4000 |
Delaware (DE) | +1000 | -4000 |
Florida (FL) | -150 | +115 |
Georgia (GA) | -165 | +125 |
Hawaii (HI) | +1000 | -4000 |
Idaho (ID) | -10000 | +1400 |
Illinois (IL) | +1000 | -4000 |
Indiana (IN) | -2000 | +800 |
Iowa (IA) | -185 | +140 |
Kansas (KS) | -2900 | +900 |
Kentucky (KY) | -6000 | +1200 |
Louisiana (LA) | -6600 | +1200 |
Maine (ME) | +550 | -1000 |
Maryland (MD) | +1200 | -6600 |
Massachusetts (MA) | +1200 | -6600 |
Michigan (MI) | +225 | -310 |
Minnesota (MN) | +235 | -330 |
Mississippi (MS) | -2500 | +850 |
Missouri (MO) | -2000 | +800 |
Montana (MT) | -2000 | +800 |
Nebraska (NE) | -6000 | +1200 |
Nevada (NV) | +205 | -280 |
New Hampshire (NH) | +275 | -400 |
New Jersey (NJ) | +1000 | -4000 |
New Mexico (NM) | +500 | -900 |
New York (NY) | +900 | -2900 |
North Carolina (NC) | -115 | -115 |
North Dakota (ND) | -10000 | +1400 |
Ohio (OH) | -280 | +205 |
Oklahoma (OK) | -10000 | +1400 |
Oregon (OR) | +800 | -2000 |
Pennsylvania (PA) | +145 | -190 |
Rhode Island (RI) | +1100 | -5000 |
South Carolina (SC) | -1600 | +700 |
South Dakota (SD) | -6600 | +1200 |
Tennessee (TN) | -5000 | +1100 |
Texas (TX) | -360 | +250 |
Utah (UT) | -5000 | +1100 |
Vermont (VT) | +1100 | -5000 |
Virginia (VA) | +700 | -1600 |
Washington (WA) | +1000 | -4000 |
The odds above were accurate at the time of writing but subject to sudden change. As the 2020 election races reaches it conclusion, there are all kinds of factors that will affect these and other election betting odds.
To get the latest odds, I recommend checking out the following sites.
You’re not going to find safer states to bet on for Republican wins than those encompassed in the “red wall” or “red sea.”
These states have voted for the GOP in the last seven elections, and stay committed to Republican policy. Many of the Southern States are also loyal to the red party, while the Deep South states have senators and governors that are almost unanimously Republican.
Texas
It was unsurprising that the former El Paso Congressman Beto O’Rourke’s impressive challenge to Republican Senator Ted Cruz in 2018 would start tongues wagging about Texas potentially being a swing state in 2020.
But that’s not going to happen, especially with Texans worried about Joe Biden’s alleged fracking claims and his anti-gun stance.
At the time of writing, Trump’s chances of winning Alabama are about 99%.
Sure, polling data isn’t always accurate, but it’s safe to say that the state will go for Trump. Republican nominees have comfortably taken Alabama by 20 points since 2004. In 2016, Trump’s winning margin was close to 28%.
South Carolina
In the Carolinas, voters don’t tend to change their votes.
But while Trump is battling for North Carolina, South is all but his.
Strongly Trending (Google) since immediately after the second debate is CAN I CHANGE MY VOTE? This refers changing it to me. The answer in most states is YES. Go do it. Most important Election of your life!
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) October 27, 2020
Oklahoma is another state is almost certain to vote Republican. Trump recently appealed to Oklahomans to consider what he believes is Biden’s ambitions to “destroy the oil industry.”
There’s a good chance that Trump loses the popular vote but is re-elected. He will need states like Oklahoma, though. Luckily for him, he will definitely win Oklahoma.
Safe Biden states to bet on? Well, those behind the blue wall, obviously.
From California to New York, Biden will have the support of many voters who align with the progressive and liberal ideals that his party gravitates toward.
You won’t many safer states for Dems than these.
California
It would be a greater shock for Trump to win California than his victory in 2016’s presidential election.
The state has voted heavily in favor of the Democrat nominee for the last seven election cycles, and will be considerably blue this time around.
More chance of the New York Jets winning the Super Bowl.
Basically California, but with East Coast voters.
Trump’s chances here are probably worse than they are for him to win the lottery every month for the next two years. Not statistically, of course, but when has he been concerned with that?
Delaware
Can you imagine if Joe Biden lost Delaware? Especially as he served as the United States Senator for Delaware from 1973 to 2009?
Now, he might not remember that, and will probably refer to voters in his home state as God knows what, but they will vote for him en masse. Whether Biden is, in fact, “Joe Biden’s husband” and “Kamala’s running mate” or not, he’s got this.
Minnesota
There are fewer states as fiercely loyal to the Democrats than Minnesota.
Other than Nixon’s victory here in 1972, Minnesota has voted blue since JFK in 1960. Will Trump be the first Republican since “Tricky Dick?”
Can turtles play tennis?
If you’re looking for value bets on the 2020 presidential election, the ones below are definitely my favorite.
I have explained why under each one, so give them a read and see what you think. Perhaps you will love them, but you might think they stink worse than old broccoli in a tumble dryer.
Nevada – Democrat Win (-280)
I would have expected the odds of a Dems victory in Nevada to be a lot shorter than this.
It might come as a surprise to anyone betting on the election in Las Vegas and in other parts of the state, but I can’t see Trump winning here.
Although no fault of Trump’s, the global health crisis has ripped through the hospitality industry in the state. With mass unemployment as a result, this is something that voters might very well take out on Trump in the polls.
With a huge portion of the Latino community rallying behind Trump, as well as a surge of support among black males, I think his odds to win Florida are excellent.
Florida is a key state for Trump. If he loses here, It’s goodnight Vienna for his campaign. But I don’t see that happening.
There is a sizeable Cuban community in the state alone that have no intention of voting for someone like Biden, who Cuban-Americans like Jorge Masvidal claim has socialist values.
I knew @realDonaldTrump was legit when his son @DonaldJTrumpJr told me we share the same diet plan. Good food. Good hair. Good riddance socialism. pic.twitter.com/kLBvvPGAtl
— Jorge Masvidal UFC (@GamebredFighter) October 12, 2020
Michigan – Republican Win (+225)
I think there is great value in Trump winning in Michigan.
Now, I won’t say that this is nailed on in any way, shape, or form. It’s not. Biden leads in the polls right now, but it’s close.
The POTUS has hit the campaign trail hard in the state, and views it as one of the key pieces to his re-election campaign in 2020. Can he do it, just as he did in 2016? Or will Biden, who has pretty much neglected it in contrast, win?
Here’s what they just played at Trump’s rally in Lansing, Michigan: pic.twitter.com/pEzLNUamjs
— Andrew Solender (@AndrewSolender) October 27, 2020
From the best value bets for those wagering on the Electoral College results to bets that I would not touch.
And by not touch I mean they are too close to call this time around. These are, as I see it, states that could really end up going either way.
If you want to learn more, Jennifer’s Swing States predictions for the 2020 presidential election is definitely worth a read. We don’t agree on everything, but there is certainly a lot we do see going the same way.
Wisconsin
Although Biden is leading well at the time of writing, I think Wisconsin could end up surprising us. But would I bet on that? Absolutely not.
Daily Las Vegas Presidential 2020 Odds
Sure, many Trump voters are said to be waiting until the day to cast their votes, and this could be swayed by the incumbent’s efforts on the ground in the state.
I’m approaching this one the same way that I would approach a six-foot wasp with an attitude problem.
Although this state has a rich and deep history of voting red, some pundits believe that Biden could change that.
Other than Clinton’s win in 1996, Arizona has voted Republican in every presidential election since 1952. That’s one hell of a history to overturn, so it comes as a little surprise that Biden would be the man to do it.
A GREAT DAY IN ARIZONA! pic.twitter.com/jsohSb5QF6
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) June 24, 2020
Don’t forget, there are a lot of older folks in the state that are worried about Biden’s tax policies. There are other citizens of all ages worried about his Green New Deal. Still, he is believed to be ahead in the polls.
Trump, who will appeal to Arizonans to vote for him, should win this state. But that will depend on many of the senior citizens responding well to the president’s efforts in handling the global health crisis earlier this year.
Too tough to call.
Iowa
With a large percentage of voters that identify as independent, it should come as no surprise to see Iowa classed a swing state.
Republican’s have four presidential election wins from the past 40 years here, with in 1980, 1984, 2004 and 2016 counting as big ones. Democrats have six wins in that timeframe, with 1988, 1992, 1996, 2000, 2008 and 2012.
Although Biden could have an advantage due to serving as Obama’s VP in 2008 and 2012, Trump won here last time. And given the state’s anti-Green New Deal stance, this one could go right down to the wire.
2020 Presidential Election Prediction Las Vegas Odds
You can find everything you need for betting on the presidential election on our site. My colleagues and I have been working around the clock on all angles of the election, and are will continue to do so until election day.
What Are The Vegas Odds On The 2020 Presidential Election
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